I am not kidding; your brain will probably get hacked.

Posted on November 11, 2012 by Scott Jackisch

I vacillate between optimism and pessimism when I consider the trajectory of human history. On the one hand I am sympathetic to the optimists like Steven Pinker and Matt Ridley. They are able to show a large body of data that supports a narrative of human progress. On the other hand, I can see why scientists and hippies alike are concerned that human population growth could damage the biosphere‘s ability to sustain humans. Unlike the hippies, I acknowledge that an anti-technology, back-to-nature approach would also result in a massive die-off of the human population. (Pol Pot had a back-to-nature plan.) Also, going back-to-nature would simply reset the timer since humans (perhaps more than other living things) seem to have these cooperative and competitive threads intertwined. Groups of humans that cooperate to create technology will always outcompete groups with weaker technology.

I assume that we will need to innovate our way out of this population problem. I don’t buy the idea that humans will give up materialism en masse and switch to a non-consumptive knowledge-based economy as some authors suggest. ( At least not until we get Matrix quality Virtual Reality.) Though the paper just cited is probably correct that this innovation inevitably feeds into a singularity event that will move humans to a “qualitatively new level.” I guess I prefer the devil-we-can’t-know to a probable human semi-extinction outcome. Go Singularity!

The path to this human-salvation-level innovation is definitely rocky though. I have brought up Thiel’s concerns about the stagnation of innovation. And there seem to be perverse market incentives in place to wring every last drop of dinosaur juice out of the earth. (Seriously, the insurance companies need to stand up to big oil at some point.) We need more of our plutocrat overlords to get into electric cars, solar energy, and rockets to Mars like Elon Musk.

Ok, so are you getting the idea that this blog is not entirely about starry-eyed techno-optimism? Good, read on. The reason I am writing this post is that an acquaintance from my Futurist meetup sent me a NY Times article on human augmentation. This article digs into actual augmentation that is happening today: from brain implants that help paralyzed people operate artificial limbs to drugs like Provigil which some people use to help them perform better when then skip sleep.

I am most concerned about the security of computerized augmentation though. Cochlear implants are being used by hundreds of thousands of people right now. These devices “require and enable remote programming.” Devices to restore vision to the blind are in early stage development as well, along with exoskeletons to help the physically disabled. All of these devices will require software. Software requires updates. Herein lies a problem.

There is a great line in Ghost in the Shell where an agent says to an enemy: “Sorry pal, I had to hack your eyes” and then kills him. GITS was actually fairly prescient with their take on cyberwarcraft. (The series deeply explores transhumanism as well, I highly recommend it. Don’t be distracted by the sexy outfits, this is fairly cerebral stuff.) Some might mistakenly assume that these augmentation devices are designed with security in mind. But they aren’t. One researcher showed how he could hack his own insulin pump at BlackHat last year.

Some might also mistakenly assume that computer security is effective even when effort is taken to implement it. Consider botnets, which are massive collections (millions!) of infected computers under the control of hackers. It’s hard to measure botnets, but there is no question that millions of machines are at work generating spam every day. You see, the old days of naughty vandal hackers is mostly past. Now hacking is mostly a business based on stealing your stuff: computing resources, financial account information, intellectual property, etc. (Well there is also the whole cyberwar thing.) So hackers do everything they can to evade detection.

I work with computer systems for a living, so I need to deal with security to do my job and I follow the trends. At BlackHat/DefCon this year, I was depressed by the general consensus that the computer security was effectively useless against Advanced Persistent Threats (APT). Look at hacks like Aurora, Night Dragon, and the RSA hack. Our best technology, energy, and defence companies were cracked open and looted of intellectual property worth billions by some estimates. APT is basically a targeted attack where the attacker knows what victim they want to hit as opposed to general attacks that just scan the internet to find any vulnerable system. These types of attacks are fiendishly difficult to defend against. The database approach used by most AntiMalware software is fairly effective against non-targeted attacks of opportunity. But to populate a database of APT attack vectors, you need data sharing and that is a whole other can of worms. “Look how I got hacked, Mr. Corporate Competitor.” “Sure, go ahead and install that black box on my network Uncle Sam.”

So let’s just say that computer security is problematic. I am not trying to discourage internet usage. It seems clear that in most cases the benefits of connecting to the internet dwarf the risks from cybercrime. However there are many types of systems with different risk/reward ratios that should not be connected to the internet. But they are anyway, since administrators make mistakes or take shortcuts. Some might argue that augmentation devices will be implemented more carefully than unimportant things like power plants or facility control systems. However, whenever there is a vector there is a way.

One might wonder what real benefit hackers gain by hacking augmentation devices. Why hack eyes and ears? Doctorow and Stross explore the idea of spam being injected directly into your visual field in their recent book Rapture of the Nerds. Of course Big Brother types in governments would love to control what you see and ear and have access to those feeds as well. Really the possibilities are endless. The digital series H+ explores how augmentation might go awry. I haven’t watched it much, but this scene is fairly chilling where a bunch of augmented humans experience a malfunction of some sort.

But still, the benefits of augmentation might still outweigh the risks. I do think that augmentation will probably be the best way to avoid getting mown down by superhuman AI. Nonetheless, we might not have a choice in the matter. There may well come a day when anyone without augmentation will be as helpless as a modern information worker without internet access. The augmented will simply outcompete everyone else.

Paleo Future

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Scott Jackisch

No, the title of this post is not meant to refer to Paleo Future the blog about futures that never happened. Though every futurist will want to check that blog out and see what other predictions went astray beside flying cars. I have been arguing with my friend about this idea that something was lost when the European aristocracy was pushed aside by democracy. I am disinclined to agree with that point of view, but I found one of his criticisms quite odd. He suggested that it was strange for a futurist who believes in progress to resist the reintroduction of past ideas. That seemed counterintuitive to me. Progress relies on new ideas, right? Well maybe not.

One could make the argument that modern lifestyles are socially isolating and largely unhealthy in terms of diet and exercise. (In the developed world at least.) Promoters of the Paleo diet suggest that humans evolved to consume a diet of vegetables and meat with no grains or refined foods. That’s sort of the reintroduction of an old idea. Of course some people take exception to it and I guess we did evolve more amylase genes to deal with agriculture. And it’s hard to find the wild herbs and Megaloceros steaks that cavemen supposedly thrived on. Also, our ancestors didn’t think about this diet in the same way we do today. I assume they would have preferred some nutrient rich grains if they could get their paws on some.

Next please consider Dunbar’s Number, which is the idea that us primates only have enough smarts to fully participate in a social scene of about 150 individuals. Supposedly Gore-Tex structured their company around this idea and restricted the size of each office and factory to less than 150 primates. Again, here we see a modern lifestyle (work style?) developed in response to a model of natural constraints. I can believe that people are happier in villages. (or at least Danish villages) But I hate the provincialism of the traditional village. I prefer the idea a more modern version (i.e. intentional communities) where people can choose to live together with others who share their values.

In Mothers and Others, Sarah Hrdy points out that humans are unique among great apes in the way that mothers will allow others to hold their babies. In contrast, baboon mothers won’t let anyone near their babies. Also, humans have a high level of child food provisioning by non-relatives compared to other creatures. Hrdy makes some interesting arguments that this situation increased human cognition because only babies that could understand how to get care from a range of adults would be able to survive. Modern parents are probably much more stressed than their prehistoric (or Global South) counterparts who have extended families and friends close by to help care for children. Parenting co-ops are one modern idea that came about in response to this problem.

Notice the theme here is that we are developing new ideas which try to emulate previous ways of living. Stephenson wrote about the emergence of Neo-Victorians in his novel the Diamond Age. The example of Polyface farms also comes to mind. They try to take advantage of the synergistic relationship between cows and chickens using modern portable electric fencing. All these ideas are based on our increasing knowlege of natural systems. There are parallels to old ideas, but I find them more refined. Of course, not as refined as those aristocratic lords of old were. I am not sure how to reinvent the value they provided.

Future Salon – Future of Health: Adam Bosworth, Christine Peterson, and Faheem Ahmed

Posted on November 2, 2012 by Scott Jackisch

I attended my first Future Salon this evening and heard Adam Bosworth, Christine Peterson, and Faheem Ahmed give presentations. The salon was held at the SAP campus in Mountain View.

Christine Peterson started out the talks with a presentation on Quantified Self, life extension, and personalized medicine. The audience was mostly aware of QS already, but some expressed disdain for the life extension idea during the Q&A. One audience member complained that the fountain of youth has been sought for centuries but no one has delivered on the promise of extended life span. I thought that this was a bit ironic given the steady increase in life span over time and the fact that QS and modern life extension techniques haven’t really been in use long enough to show a longevity effect. However, Peterson responded with sympathy and actually said that she was more interested in health extension. She mentioned concierge doctors as a good resource to help with this.

Bosworth talked about his new startup Keas which is a corporate wellness app that uses gamefication to achieve captology. He pointed out that personalization is unhelpful in a team environment. Having just a few core health goals gives everyone a common experience to share. He listed four activities to achieve better heath: eat less food overall, eat more greens, reduce stress, and exercise more. He dismissed QS as being for Silicon Valley data geeks who were mostly healthy already. His focus is on the average American who is overweight, stressed, eats a poor diet, and neglects exercise because that is where he feels he can do the most good. He mentioned that he wanted to set aside his work on “legos for adults” and do something to help humanity.

Ahmed talked about his own experience as a care giver for older members of his family as well as his son. He presented an app he led the development of at SAP called Care Circles. This app helps care givers manage their care plans and team members. It provides assistance in building care strategies as well as journals and customizable data trackers. The social elements allow care givers to share medical data with anyone they want which bypasses HIPAA barriers to social apps that most health providers face. Ahmed mentioned that generation X was a sandwich generation having a larger population of baby boomers to care for as well as a large generation Y. I sympathized with this, having had to help with the care giving my girlfriend did during her sister’s cancer. This tool would have been really useful to keep track of progress and tasklists.